Hello, and welcome to the eighth edition of Predicting the Dream Team brought to you by me, FPL Texan. In this article, we preview FPL Gameweek 31.
So first off, let’s take a look at who won the sixth battle in GW30, myself or Foomni.
Gameweek 30 Review
|Manager||Gameweek 30 Score||H2H Score||Total Points|
As you can see, Foomni has ended my win streak and brought the head to head score to 5-2!
Their best selection was Trent Alexander-Arnold, who scored 12 FPL points in Gameweek 30.
Moving onto GW31, let’s take a look at Foomni Analytics’ team and a brief explanation of their algorithm.
Foomni’s Predicted Team of the Week (Gameweek 31)
Algo is a predictive algorithm developed by Foomni Analytics, with the goal of projecting FPL player points as correctly as possible. This is Algo’s second full season, and every week it makes new projections for all players and uses them to pick that week’s Dream Team, and provide general FPL advice.
Algo’s brain is a complex system that uses the data from several previous seasons to calculate a player’s form, and then determines what factors affect a player’s form, and applies appropriate modifiers to reflect them.
If you are interested to know more about Algo’s inner workings, this is a good place to start.
It is important to note that there may be a few final changes to Algo’s team following the press conferences.
Next, we will look at my predicted team of the week and my reasoning behind each decision.
Texan’s Predicted Team of the Week (Gameweek 31)
Important note before we begin – this is not my actual team for Gameweek 31, but instead my predicted team of the week (almost as though I had a free hit to choose as I wish).
- Price: £5.0m
- Ownership: 6.8%
- Projected Points: 3.26 Points
Leno makes my team of the week for the first time, with a favourable matchup against Sheffield United. The Blades have the worst xG in the league since March 1st, at just 2.59, so a clean sheet could well be on the cards for Arsenal this week. Arsenal’s defence is middle of the road in terms of xGA ranking 12th highest, but here we are going Fixture over Form and putting Leno in the net.
Leno averages 2.52 saves per match, so there is also a chance of a save point or two.
- Price: £7.3m
- Ownership: 14.1%
- Projected Points: 5.29 Points
Trent starts for me this week, in a home matchup against Villa. Trent is coming off of an impressive 12 point performance in which he grabbed a clean sheet and an assist. Trent seems to be finding his great form of last season, with a team leading xA of 1.83 over the last 5 games as well as 3.38 Key Passes per match.
Liverpool’s defence has also been solid, ranking in the top 5 for lowest xGA since March 1st. Especially if Jack Grealish were to miss this game, Trent and the Liverpool defence are a good option this week.
- Price: £5.9m
- Ownership: 8.3%
- Projected Points: 3.13 Points
Azpilicueta comes in this week, with a nice matchup against Crystal Palace. Although Chelsea defence did not do well this last Gameweek, a lot of that can be chalked up to the early red card. Chelsea defence has been the top defence in the league since March 1st, with an xGA of just 2.28. Crystal Palace on the other hand have not been very good offensively, ranking in the bottom 3 for xG since March 1st.
Azpilicueta is also a bonus point magnet, getting bonus points in 3 of his last 6 matches, so if Chelsea keep a clean sheet he is a good bet to grab an extra few points this week.
- Price: £6.2m
- Ownership: 9.0%
- Projected Points: 3.64 Points
Lucas Digne makes a return to the team of the week with a home matchup against Brighton. Brighton have cooled off from being the xG gods they were at one point, ranking in the bottom five for xG since March 1st. Digne’s main appeal is his attacking potential, with an xA of 1.53 over the last 5 matches.
Double-digits points could come this week for Digne if he can finally get someone to get on the end of one of his crosses.
KEVIN DE BRUYNE
- Price: £11.9m
- Ownership: 19.9%
- Projected Points: 5.37 Points
De Bruyne starts out the midfielders section this week, with a home matchup against Leeds. Man City are the top team for xG since March 1st, with an xG of 12.35 over that period. KDB has been integral to the team since returning, leading the team in xA (1.73) and ranking 3rd in xG (1.79) over the last 5 matches.
Leeds are not a great defence, with just 3 clean sheets in their last 10 matches and face a City team firing all cylinders, so KDB is a no-brainer in my team of the week.
- Price: £12.4m
- Ownership: 29.8%
- Projected Points: 5.40 Points
Salah finally rewarded his owners with a goal against Arsenal. This week he goes up against a Villa team that are ranked in the top 10 for worst xGA since March 1st. Salah has been unlucky to get just one goal over the last 5 games, with his xG at 2.00 over that time period being a team high. Liverpool look to be finding their form again, and with a nice run of fixtures to end the season starting this week, Salah is back in my team of the week.
- Price: £6.3m
- Ownership: 19.3%
- Projected Points: 4.54 Points
Lingard is the man in form at the moment, so no surprise that he makes the team of the week. West Ham have Leicester this week, who are a solid defence ranking in the top 5 for best xGA since March 1st, but Lingard and West Ham are in great form so it is too hard to ignore him. Lingard has 4 goals and 3 assists in his last 5 matches, leading all midfielders in those categories.
JLingz is a must for me in my team of the week, as his resurgence to form since going on loan to West Ham has been fantastic for FPL.
BRUNO FERNANDES (C)
- Price: £11.6m
- Ownership: 58.2%
- Projected Points: 8.44 Points
Bruno is in the team of the week again, facing Tottenham away this week. Bruno is second on the team over the last 5 matches for xG at 1.58, and first in xA at 1.02. Tottenham’s defense has not been great as of late, with the 5th highest xGA since March 1st in the league. Man United’s offense has been good in comparison, ranking 8th in xG over the same period.
Bruno seems to always find his way on the score sheet, and I would expect him to be involved in the goals again this Gameweek. He will be my captain against a shaky Spurs defence.
- Price: £5.7m
- Ownership: 7.5%
- Projected Points: 3.69 Points
Neto is another debutant in my team of the week article, as he and Wolves face Fulham. Neto has been heavily involved in the Wolves attack, ranking 3rd on the team for xG (1.35) and first for xA (1.41) over their last 5 matches. Fulham have not been great defensively as of late, with the second highest xGA in the league since March 1st.
In a game where Wolves should score, the best attacking option for them makes my team of the week.
- Price: £8.2m
- Ownership: 6.4%
- Projected Points: 5.80 Points
Lacazette and Arsenal have possibly the best matchup this week, facing Sheffield United. Sheffield United have the worst xGA since March 1st, at 10.87. That is nearly 3 goals higher then second worst Fulham at 7.91. Arsenal are middle of the road in terms of xG, but this is all about the fixture over form matchup. Lacazette’s numbers have also been quite strong, with a team leading xG of 2.84 over his last 5 games, and he has scored 3 over that period.
In a game where Sheffield should concede, and could concede multiple, Arsenal’s main striker makes my team of the week.
- Price: £11.7m
- Ownership: 48.1%
- Projected Points: 5.32 Points
Kane rounds out my team of the week this week with a home matchup against Man United. Kane has been in fantastic form as of late, with 5 goals and 2 assists over the last 5 matches. He unsurprisingly leads the league in xG (4.77) and is second in xA (0.96) for Spurs over that same time period. Man United’s defence has been solid since March 1st, with the second lowest xGA over that period, but when Kane is in this sort of form the opposing defence is not an issue.
With Kane looking in great form and hungry for goals, and Tottenham needing results to get into the Top 4, Kane makes my team of the week.
Man vs. Machine – Who will win?
Will Algo start their own win streak, or will I push my lead out to 4 again?
Let us know in the comments who you are backing this week!
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