FPL Captain Metric: Double Gameweek 27

We explore the best options for the Fantasy Premier League captain for Gameweek 27 and reveal the results of our captain poll and our new captain metric – who will you choose this FPL Gameweek?

Article written by FPL Raptor, with the metric and graphics created by FPL Rover.

BRAND NEW METRIC EXPLAINED: This article (hit the link) explains the concept and working fully >> https://fplconnect.blog/2018/08/07/the-captain-metric-explained-2/

Results of the Poll

The following underlying statistics are taken from FantasyFootballHub.co.uk. If you want to gain access to these stats yourself, register to become a member here >> https://fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/freetrial/.

Kevin De Bruyne

Underlying attacking stats the last 5 GWs (games where he was out injured/rested not included):

  • 4 appearances
  • 12 penalty area touches
  • 1 big chance created
  • 0 big chances
  • 0 goals
  • 1 assist

Ilkay Gundogan

Underlying attacking stats the last 5 GWs (games where he was out injured/rested not included):

  • 5 appearances
  • 22 penalty area touches
  • 2 big chances created
  • 5 big chances
  • 4 goals
  • 3 assists

Raheem Sterling

Underlying attacking stats the last 5 GWs (games where he was out injured/rested not included):

  • 6 appearances
  • 52 penalty box touches
  • 2 big chances created
  • 6 big chances
  • 3 goals
  • 1 assist

Harry Kane

Underlying attacking stats the last 5 GWs (games where he was out injured/rested not included):

  • 5 appearances
  • 22 penalty box touches
  • 0 big chances created
  • 5 big chances
  • 2 goals
  • 0 assists

Heung-Min Son

Underlying attacking stats the last 5 GWs (games where he was out injured/rested not included):

  • 6 appearances
  • 17 penalty box touches
  • 5 big chances created
  • 1 big chance
  • 1 goal
  • 2 assists

Captain Metric

The winner of this weeks Captain Metric will be revealed later in the article.

The format of the captaincy metric article will be slightly different this week, with the winner revealed following a detailed analysis of individual and team based factors to consider in your captaincy decision.

Fixtures for the double gameweek (days rest between fixtures in brackets):

Man City (2 days): MUN (H) & SOU (H)

Southampton (3 days): SHU (A) & MCI (A)

Who are the top performers?

We have summarised the data from the past five gameweeks for selected players ahead of the double gameweek in the table below.

Key attacking stats for select captaincy candidates between Gameweeks 22 & 26

Interestingly, in comparison to the previous captain metric articles, Bruno Fernandes is no longer the dominant creative force in the Premier League. Heung-Min Son now tops the pile for key passes per 90 (2.3) and big chances created per 90 (0.80), with his two assists in GW26 suggesting he is now turning provider for Harry Kane and Gareth Bale. These impressive creative stats should make both Kane and Son better assets over the coming weeks.

Speaking of Harry Kane, he tops the charts for shots per 90 (4.2), however, these appear to be coming from predominantly outside of the box. He is averaging 1 big chance per 90, so if he has his shooting boots on, at least one return is likely.

Although a very small sample size, Kevin de Bruyne has started very well since returning from injury. He ranks third best for key passes per 90 (2.1) and big chances created per 90 (0.4). Out of all of the captaincy options he is also shooting the second most per 90 (3.2), which is always great for your captain.

Raheem Sterling continues to be one of the most dangerous captaincy options, with a staggering 8.8 touches per 90 in the opposition box. As with Harry Kane, he is averaging 1 big chance per 90.

The biggest goal threat continues to be Ilkay Gundogan, although this could be a carry over from the games prior to de Bruyne’s return. Gundogan still tops the charts for xG per 90 (0.71) and goals per 90 (0.8). As with Sterling and Kane, Gundogan is averaging 1 big chance per 90.

The most underwhelming stats are for Danny Ings, who despite having a double gameweek, probably does not inspire much confidence in managers looking to give him the armband. His creative threat is virtually non-existent, and his xG per 90 (0.25) is at a season low for the usually prolific number 9.

Lastly, it is worth noting that Salah’s stats also paint a very worrying picture. He does have the 2nd highest touches in the box (5.4) and leads the charts for big chances per 90 (1.2), however, his creative threat is very low, and more importantly, he is not converting his chances as of late.

Which fixtures should be targeted?

Average xG (expected goals) for and against per 90 minutes between Gameweeks 22 & 26

Purely from perusing the above graphic, we can see that the largest discrepancies are between Chelsea vs. Everton, Manchester City vs. Southampton, and Brighton vs. Leicester. All stats presented in this section will be taking from GW22-GW26.

Beginning with the Chelsea vs. Everton game. Chelsea continue to impress in their underlying defensive numbers. Their xGA per 90 (0.66) is the best in the league, overtaking the impressive Manchester City backline. They have also conceded the least big chances (4). In attack, they boast the 4th best xG in the league (10.18) and the 3rd highest big chances (14). Defensively and offensively they are performing very well.

On the other hand, Everton have the 4th worst xGA in the league (10.56), and the 5th highest big chances conceded (14). Everton’s attacking numbers are somewhat more promising than their defensive numbers, as they boast the 6th highest xG in the league (9.01) and the 3rd highest goals (10). I would still suggest that Chelsea look favourites in this fixture, but do not count Everton out quite yet.

The most obvious fixture to target this week is Manchester City vs. Southampton. Manchester City rank 1st in the league for shots (99), shots on target (40), shots in the box (70), big chances (21), xG (14.94), and goals (19). They are completely dominant offensively. City have dropped to 3rd in the league for xGA (4.35), but still rank 1st for shots conceded (42) and 2nd for big chances conceded (5). These numbers suggest that double City attack may be the way forward in future weeks.

City’s 2nd opponent, Southampton, are experiencing the complete opposite. They rank 2nd worst for xGA (11.70) and 3rd worst for big chances conceded (16). In attack, the story is much of the same. They rank 3rd worst for xG (6.03), and joint 2nd worst for goals (4). You would expect City to dominate this game, with a potential 4-0 or 5-0 score-line.

The last fixture that could be worth targeting is Brighton vs. Leicester. Brighton are becoming very well-known for producing fantastic underlying stats, but struggling to follow through with actual results – so take these stats with a pinch of salt!

Brighton rank 1st (best) in the league for xGA (3.87), shots in the box conceded (24) and shots on target conceded (13). In attack they are generally average, boasting the 9th best xG (8.27) and the 12th highest big chances (10).

Leicester City boast the 7th best xG (8.53). However, with injuries to James Maddison and Harvey Barnes, as well as a general lack of sharpness from Jamie Vardy, they look very weak in attack. Defensively, they boast the 9th worst xGA (8.26). I personally think this is a tricky match to predict, however, I would not be surprised to see a stalemate (0-0) given Brighton’s great defensive numbers and Leicester’s injuries.

Who wins the Captaincy Metric?

The winner of the captaincy metric for double gameweek 27 is Raheem Sterling, with teammates Ilkay Gundogan and Kevin de Bruyne taking 2nd and 3rd respectively.

You can see the results for all candidates in the table below, broken down by their individual and team contributions towards the metric score. For a more detailed understanding of how the metric is calculated, please click here.

It is also important to note that because some players have two fixtures this week, their team score reflects both fixtures and therefore carries the weight of the metric score. In a single gameweek, individual vs team contributions are typically more balanced.

Please note: Individual bias (IB), highlights how balanced their score is between team and individual form. A score below 50% suggests the team has contributed the most weight to their score, while a score above 50% shows individual performances that outweigh that of the team.

My view

In my personal opinion, I think it is a Manchester City player that should take the armband this week. However, do not feel obliged to captain a player that plays twice. As we saw in GW26 with Gundogan (6), Sterling (2), and Cancelo (2), a combination of rotation and sharing of points can result in our City assets underperforming.

It is also worth mentioning that the Manchester City defenders are probably very viable options this week. Cancelo was rested in the first fixture of GW26, and Dias seemingly plays every match in which he is fit. I think both of these players are very good captaincy options this week, with a floor of 6 points if they only play once and get a clean sheet. In fact, Dias (12) outscored KDB (10), Gundogan (6) and Sterling (2) in GW26. If I had to captain one defender, I would probably just favour Cancelo due to his slightly higher ceiling.

With regard to the single gameweek options, I personally would not be looking past Harry Kane or Heung-Min Son. Whilst Tottenham still aren’t clicking on a regular basis, Crystal Palace are generally woeful without Zaha. I fancy Spurs to win by a few goals to nil, and Kane and Son will almost definitely be involved in that case.

I am currently considering bringing in Kevin de Bruyne to captain him. However, if I decide against this, I will be captaining Kane with Gundogan as my vice captain. I personally believe these are the three best captaincy options this week, closely followed by Cancelo and Dias.

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