FPL Captain Metric: Gameweek 23

We explore the best options for the Fantasy Premier League captain for Gameweek 23 and reveal the results of our captain poll and our new captain metric – who will you choose this FPL Gameweek?

BRAND NEW METRIC EXPLAINED: This article (hit the link) explains the concept and working fully >> https://fplconnect.blog/2018/08/07/the-captain-metric-explained-2/

THIS ARTICLE WAS WRITTEN BY FPL RAPTOR: You can find his Twitter here >> https://twitter.com/FPL__Raptor.

Results of the Poll

The following underlying statistics are taken from FantasyFootballHub.co.uk. 

Heung-Min Son

Underlying attacking stats the last 5 GWs (games where he was out injured/rested not included):

  • 5 appearances
  • 19 penalty box touches
  • 1 big chance created
  • 5 big chances
  • 0 goals
  • 1 assist
  • xG 2.34
  • xA 0.94

Bruno Fernandes

Underlying attacking stats the last 5 GWs (games where he was out injured/rested not included):

  • 6 appearances
  • 27 penalty box touches
  • 5 big chances created
  • 2 big chances
  • 1 goal
  • 3 assists
  • xG 2.48
  • xA 2.82

Michail Antonio

Underlying attacking stats the last 5 GWs (games where he was out injured/rested not included):

  • 5 appearances
  • 26 penalty box touches
  • 2 big chances created
  • 5 big chances
  • 2 goal
  • 3 assists
  • xG 2.83
  • xA 1.52

Captain Metric

The winner of this weeks Captain Metric is Michail Antonio.

Important notes: Individual bias (IB), highlights how balanced their score is between team and individual form. A score below 50% suggests the team has contributed the most weight to their score, while a score above 50% shows individual performances that outweigh that of the team.

Individual total has now been adjusted to account for other KPIs that can help identify a strong captaincy candidate. These include FPL points (as usual), xGI (expected goal involvement), penalty box touches, big chances, big chances created). These metrics have been adjusted so each metric carries similar weight to the overall individual score.

Metric results explained

The metric results show that Michail Antonio, Raheem Sterling and Heung-Min are the top three statistical choices for captaincy in Gameweek 23.

With ongoing injuries to strong captaincy candidates Kevin De Bruyne and Harry Kane, and a worrying loss of form for Mo Salah and Heung-Min Son, the captaincy dilemma continues to be open.

Given the head to head battle, I think most people will be avoiding captaining Manchester City and Liverpool players and I expect none of their players to have an effective ownership of over 100% – owning these players will be enough this week.

Today, I will present the individual players data before considering the best fixtures, allowing us to come to a comprehensive conclusion on the best candidates for gameweek 23.

Looking at individual player data

It is clear to see straight away why the metric data suggested Michail Antonio is the optimal captaincy pick this week.

He ranks in the top three for almost all key performance indicators, with his 17 shots, 5 big chances, and xG per 90 of 0.79, Antonio is producing underlying stats similar to that before his mega haul against Norwich last season.

Raheem Sterling‘s stats have also been very consistent, however, the difficulty of the previous matches for City have certainly not been especially high. That being said, as always, with 44 touches in the penalty area and an xG per 90 of 0.81, Sterling is continuing to get into the correct positions.

Mr. Consistent himself Bruno Fernandes continues to impress with his underlying numbers, especially in the creativity department.

He tops the charts for xA per 90 (0.33), total assists (3) and big chances created (5). It should be noted, however, that he has played more minutes than the rest of this week’s main options, and 87 minutes against a 10 and eventual 9-man Southampton side.

Biggest disparity between teams

Produced by FPL Rover (https://twitter.com/FplRover)

As you can see in the graphic above, there are two clear fixtures this week that stand out, due to the disparity between the competing sides.

  • Manchester United vs. Everton
  • Fulham vs. West Ham

In particular, West Ham vs. Fulham looks a brilliant fixture for captaincy. West Ham have the second highest xG for, and are in the top 5 for xG against.

Alternatively, Fulham are third bottom for xG for and in the bottom five for xG against.

In other words, all of the data points to a West Ham victory with multiple goals as well as a possible clean sheet. The reverse fixture was West Ham beat Fulham 1-0, although Antonio was injured at this point.

The Everton vs. United game is likely to be a little tighter, although Everton’s xG for is actually more worrying than their xG against. That being, I would be more willing to predict a Man United clean sheet than a thrashing.

The reverse fixture saw Man United beat Everton 3-1 and Bruno managed 17 points. Make of that what you will.

Who has the poorest defence?

The below table is taking from Fantasy Football Hub for GW18-GW22, ordered from the highest xGC (expected goals conceded) to the lowest xGC.

Perhaps unsurprisingly with their recent set of fixtures, Burnley rank bottom for xGC (11.84) and also for shots conceded (105), shots in the box conceded (70), and shots on target conceded (41).

However, as highlighted above, Fulham are also having a tough time defensively. Despite playing Leicester, West Brom and Brighton in their last three, their stats are not much better than Burnley’s.

Once again, the underlying statistics seem to be pointing toward one man for the armband this week – Michail Antonio.

Having played one less game than Burnley and Fulham, West Brom’s stats also continue to look poor. Despite Son struggling for form in the absence of Kane, this fixture still looks enticing.

My view

The captain metric, underlying attacking stats, fixture disparity and underlying defensive stats all point towards Antonio being the best option this week, and he is currently the man that I will be captaining.

Heung-Min Son is of course a brilliant option. Despite the drop off in Spurs’ form in the absence of Harry Kane, I think that if I owned Son I would probably trust him with the armband, almost solely due to the poor underlying stats of West Brom.

Bruno Fernandes reminded us this week what he is capable of, and in his 2 games against Everton he has scored 3 goals. He loves to play the Toffees. He is currently my vice captain.

If you’re looking for a differential pick other than Antonio, I like the look of the following players:

  1. Ings/Adams against an average Newcastle defence, looking to bounce back.
  2. Cresswell with all of the stats pointing toward a 2-0 or 3-0 win for the Hammers.
  3. Raphinha/Bamford in-form and against a shaky Palace defence.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

Start a Blog at WordPress.com.

Up ↑

%d bloggers like this: