Week 1 Review: Attacker Fixture Tracker

A look at which players are predicted, based on our algorithms, to be the most influential, from an attacking perspective, for their clubs in the first 10 GWs

There are no surprises at the top of the attacking fixture tracker. We should be thinking about 2-3 MCI players and 1-2 from TOT, LIV, MUN CHE and ARS. But unfortunately, we are going to struggle to find sufficient low value players from this lot to make it work.

A closer look however, and we have Lamela (£6.5M), Pogba (£8M) and Giroud (£8M) to consider in the mid-price range.

Lamela we have spoken about specifically in our Player Value series as being a good option in the short-term, but both Pogba and Giroud might not be one’s to invest in from the off, given that both will be granted extended rest from their World Cup exploits.

Even Sané (£9.5M), Alli (£9M), Mané (£9.5) and Lacazette (£9.5M) all slip in under the £10M mark.

A closer look still and there are a few defenders who are forecast to be among the most influential attacking players at their club. Alexander-Arnold (£5M), Rüdiger (£6M) and Kolašinac (£5M) are amongst them however, it is big-chance involvement that is influencing our algorithms as opposed to proven attacking returns, so first and foremost, be sure you’re going to get clean-sheet points if selecting any of these.

Beyond the top seven clubs, we start to find more enablers – Zaha (£7M), Richarlison (£6.5M), Perez (£6.5M) and Wilson (£6M), with Vardy (£9M) just under the £10M mark.  There are more players to consider beyond the first three-to-five games but we don’t want to look too far ahead in pre-season.

Among this lot are the defenders, Coleman (£5.5M) and van Aanholt (£5.5M) who, unlike their aforementioned colleauges, are renowned for proven attacking returns, so clean-sheet points might be the icing on the cake as opposed to the main source of points for these two.

Warning: the accuracy of these predictions at the start of a new season, due to the real-world influence of new managers, clubs and players, is an unknown – some seasons see the majority start as they left-off and some seasons don’t. But every gameweek that passes, the accuracy will improve, so follow us and you will be the first to see the must-target fixtures and players throughout the season.
Week 1 Attacking Fixture Tracker and most influential players
Our result-predictor algorithm analyses the attacking and defensive capabilities of each club (big-chances created, conceded and conversion rate), and by comparing previous encounters between similar opposition and between the two clubs, it simulates many possible outcomes – before selecting the most likely result.
The attacking fixture tracker represents the goals-for prediction for each club – because we recognise it is important to differentiate fixture difficulty with regards to attacking and defensive capabilities seperately.
Finally, our algorithms arrive at the most influential player ratings based on their – historical share of team goal-involvement per-game, games where involved in goals and goals involved in per game – the same for big-chances involvement – and conversion rates between big-chances and goal-involvement.

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